Warren's Immigration Plan will Help the 2020 Dem Nominee
Whether she realizes it or not, I think Sen Warren just did the Democratic party, and their 2020 nominee, a huge favor and set the stage for moving immigration policy left.
Warren's immigration policy proposal is here, and it prompted Kevin Drum to ask: is this basically just open borders?
First, purely on the merits, I'll go on record that I think Warren's plan is too close to open-borders for my tastes. There really is a genuine line to be drawn between open & closed, and managing & controlling the flow of people across our borders is a worthwhile function. That line is fuzzy and probably changes by the day based on the situation, but it exists. Warren's proposal goes beyond that.
BUT, whether she actually planned this or not, I think she has fundamentally shifted the landscape and given the nominee an opportunity to shift the debate leftward in a way that seems reasonable to the average voter. Consider:
- By putting this proposal out there, Warren has just defined the "far left" position on immigration. Sure, others have put plans like this out there before, but this is the first that has top-tier presidential candidate name heft behind it. People know Warren's name and they associate her with the more progressive side of the Democratic party. The plan will get noticed and associated with the "far left" in ways that other proposals haven't.
- The nominee (who I don't think will be Warren) will put out a refined plan that isn't quite as extreme as Warren's, but still solidly progressive. Because we are a society that is obsessed with both-siderism, most voters will ignore the actual content of the plan and just latch onto the soundbite that the plan is "more moderate" than Warren's far-left proposal. Thus it will become the definition of "reasonable compromise". (Note, I'm not saying this SHOULD happen this way. But it almost certainly will.)
- Sure, Trump & the Republicans can point to Warren's plan and say "See?!? We told you the Dems actually want open borders!!" But let's be honest, they are going to do that anyway whether it's true or not. And the vast majority of their base will believe them whether it's true or not. They are not going to be moved no matter what the plan is. And the same applies to Democrats who are going to support their nominee against Trump pretty much regardless.
So basically we're left in a position where neither the Republican nor Democratic bases have shifted their support, BUT that precious "independent voter" now hears that the Democratic plan is more moderate than the original "far left" proposal. That sense of moderation will carry over to the nominee themselves, regardless of the merits.
Warren's immigration policy proposal is here, and it prompted Kevin Drum to ask: is this basically just open borders?
This is a curious plan. As near as I can tell, it recommends no actions to improve border law enforcement in any way. There’s nothing about either a wall or a “virtual wall.” There’s nothing about E-Verify. There’s nothing about “smarter” or “more efficient” enforcement. No one will ever be deported—except, presumably, for serious felons, though Warren doesn’t even say that explicitly. Expedited removal will be ended....I have previously criticized Republicans who accused liberals of wanting “open borders.” President Trump tweets about this endlessly. But I have to admit that it’s hard to see much daylight between Warren’s plan and de facto open borders.You can read through Warren's whole proposal, or you can read through Kevin's piece which does a pretty fair job summarizing the different pieces. And ultimately, I think Kevin is exactly right - Warren's proposal pretty much IS open borders in everything-but-name. But I don't think it's going to be the problem or concern that he seems to think it will be.
First, purely on the merits, I'll go on record that I think Warren's plan is too close to open-borders for my tastes. There really is a genuine line to be drawn between open & closed, and managing & controlling the flow of people across our borders is a worthwhile function. That line is fuzzy and probably changes by the day based on the situation, but it exists. Warren's proposal goes beyond that.
BUT, whether she actually planned this or not, I think she has fundamentally shifted the landscape and given the nominee an opportunity to shift the debate leftward in a way that seems reasonable to the average voter. Consider:
- By putting this proposal out there, Warren has just defined the "far left" position on immigration. Sure, others have put plans like this out there before, but this is the first that has top-tier presidential candidate name heft behind it. People know Warren's name and they associate her with the more progressive side of the Democratic party. The plan will get noticed and associated with the "far left" in ways that other proposals haven't.
- The nominee (who I don't think will be Warren) will put out a refined plan that isn't quite as extreme as Warren's, but still solidly progressive. Because we are a society that is obsessed with both-siderism, most voters will ignore the actual content of the plan and just latch onto the soundbite that the plan is "more moderate" than Warren's far-left proposal. Thus it will become the definition of "reasonable compromise". (Note, I'm not saying this SHOULD happen this way. But it almost certainly will.)
- Sure, Trump & the Republicans can point to Warren's plan and say "See?!? We told you the Dems actually want open borders!!" But let's be honest, they are going to do that anyway whether it's true or not. And the vast majority of their base will believe them whether it's true or not. They are not going to be moved no matter what the plan is. And the same applies to Democrats who are going to support their nominee against Trump pretty much regardless.
So basically we're left in a position where neither the Republican nor Democratic bases have shifted their support, BUT that precious "independent voter" now hears that the Democratic plan is more moderate than the original "far left" proposal. That sense of moderation will carry over to the nominee themselves, regardless of the merits.
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